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Falling pupil numbers could force primary schools to narrow their curriculum, cut enrichment and reduce support for early intervention, a House of Lords inquiry has been warned.

Declining rolls pose a risk of “delayed recruitment, frozen recruitment, staffing reductions, restructuring, more mixed-age class teaching”, said Heather Sandy, chair of the Inclusive Education Policy Network at the Association of Directors of Children’s Services.

Ms Sandy said reduced staffing could also mean “fewer after-school clubs” and “less flexibility” around inclusion and early intervention, speaking during a session today of the House of Lords’ Public Services Committee’s inquiry into falling primary school rolls.

Falling pupil rolls ‘not just a London issue’

The committee was also told that falling rolls are no longer just a London issue, with demographic decline now affecting rural and coastal communities.

Steve Rollett, deputy chief executive of the Confederation of School Trusts, said the drop in per-pupil funding that results from falling rolls is particularly difficult as schools’ costs are largely fixed.

Losing five pupils could cost a school at least £25,500, he said, adding that this is “a significant part” of the cost of a teacher for a year. Mr Rollett also advised the committee that falling rolls often do not have neat staffing solutions: “You can’t cut half a teacher.”

Schools tend to plan their budgets around whole classes, making it difficult to respond as pupil numbers fall, Mr Rollett said.

Vulnerable schools hit hardest

Falling rolls could also have a disproportionate impact on primary schools serving the most disadvantaged communities, the committee heard.

Popular schools are often able to maintain pupil numbers, funding, a broad curriculum and staffing levels, even in areas where pupil numbers are generally falling, Ms Sandy said. But the impact “shuffles” through the system to less popular schools, she warned, which are often those serving the most vulnerable communities.

Yolande Burgess, strategy director for communities and public service reform at London Councils, said it was well established that the first impact of falling rolls is financial - but the impact on education is less explored.

Falling rolls could affect standards, inclusion and parental confidence, Ms Burgess said, adding that the pressure on disadvantaged schools felt “almost like a structural bias”.

She warned that it could become a “self-fulfilling, horrible prophecy” if declining rolls further damaged parental confidence.

The committee also heard warnings that rural primary schools can be hit particularly hard by small changes in pupil numbers.

Empty classrooms can be used for SEND

Spare capacity in schools will create opportunities for the sector if it is managed well, the committee was told.

Ms Sandy said councils were already developing inclusion bases within mainstream schools where there was space, allowing children to stay closer to their communities while receiving specialist support.

This aligns with the government’s ambition to ensure that more pupils with special educational needs and disabilities are educated in mainstream settings, she said.

Spare school space could also be used for family-facing services, community provision, multi-academy trust headquarters or teaching school functions, she added.

But Ms Sandy warned that this required careful planning, including knowing whether spare space was temporary or permanent.

Call for national framework

The experts on the panel giving evidence to the committee called for a stronger framework from the government to help schools, trusts and councils manage falling pupil rolls.

Ms Burgess said that while the Department for Education understood the headline demographic drop, it was “not fully cognisant” of the local operational and educational impact.

The DfE could also provide leadership through a framework and examples of best practice, while avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach, Mr Rollett added.

Ms Sandy said that any national response must not be “London-centric” and should include protections for rural areas.

This response should include consideration of community impact, lack of alternative schools, transport costs and the need to fund rural schools differently when numbers fall, she added.

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