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Primary schools could receive £288 million less in per-pupil funding next year due to falling rolls, the public spending watchdog has warned.

Despite pupil numbers falling for the past eight years, the Department for Education has not provided schools with enough support to manage the risks of this drop in funding, a says.

This leaves both school finances and education quality at risk, said Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chair of the Commons Public Accounts Committee.

There will be 56,300 fewer primary school pupils in 2027 compared with 2026, the NAO estimates.

As the majority of school funding is allocated on a per-pupil basis, this would mean £288 million less for primary schools in 2027 compared with 2026, the NAO explains.

It estimates 80,200 fewer primary pupils in 2028, leading to £410 million less funding than in 2026 that year, and 65,300 fewer pupils in 2029, resulting in £334 million less funding than today.

The report calls for a “targeted response” from the DfE, local authorities, academy trusts and individual schools to protect educational outcomes and value for money.

Earlier this week, ����Vlog revealed that more than 70 staff at one of the biggest academy trusts, the Harris Federation, are at risk of redundancy - a situation that trust CEO Sir Dan Moynihan said was due to falling rolls. Many academy trusts across the country are restructuring amid dwindling pupil numbers.

Small schools at risk

The Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) has called on the government to do more to support small primary schools that are at risk of closure because of falling pupil numbers.

There are around 5,000 primary schools with one-form entry in England, based on ����Vlog estimates.

Julia Harnden, deputy director of policy at ASCL, said: “The pressures on primary schools caused by the double whammy of inadequate per-pupil funding and falling rolls have created a huge risk to the viability of many small primaries.

“The sector is working really hard to try to keep these schools open - cutting costs to the bone through measures such as mixed-aged classes. But there’s a point at which it’s not possible to employ enough staff to actually run a school and keep the doors open.”

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, added that these small schools “have less buffer to navigate fluctuating budgets”, meaning many schools have already closed in London and other high-cost-of-living areas.

“There is a real opportunity here for the government to use these population changes to deliver positive benefits, like smaller class sizes and its ambition of more SEND inclusion in mainstream,” he said.

Disadvantaged pupils hit hardest

Pupil numbers in primary schools have been falling since 2018-19, the NAO says, and the DfE has projected they will drop by another 7 per cent by 2030.

Disadvantaged pupils could be disproportionately impacted by falling pupil numbers and funding.

The NAO is calling on the DfE to develop its school estates strategy to help the education sector identify places that may not be needed and how it can manage them, and to examine how declining pupil numbers could impact outcomes, particularly for disadvantaged pupils.

Leora Cruddas, chief executive of the Confederation of School Trusts, said: “Communities rightly feel passionately about their local schools, so we need clear and fair approaches to change that put pupils first and are free from any potential conflicts of interest.”

Better use of information

The falling rolls follow many years of increasing demand for school places, as a result of which the DfE significantly increased capital funding, which may have created more spaces than needed, the NAO says.

The DfE only began specifically tracking the risk of failing to respond to changing demographics in 2024, the NAO says, and does not yet have a clear approach to supporting the sector in deciding when and how to respond.

Local authorities provide the DfE with school capacity data, and the DfE should make better use of these figures, the NAO adds.

Sir Geoffrey said it is “deeply concerning” that the DfE has been slow to respond.

“The DfE must make better use of its information and insights across the sector to support schools, clarify what a resilient and effective school estate looks like, and ensure children’s education is not compromised,” he said.

A DfE spokesperson said: “As pupil numbers change, we’re supporting areas to plan ahead and make the best use of their school estate.”

They added: “Our estates strategy will introduce a new decision-making framework from autumn 2026 to help local leaders respond to changing demand, while the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill gives the schools adjudicator the power to specify a school’s published admission number as a last resort where local agreement breaks down, with school quality and parental preference at the heart of decisions.”