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The past academic year could be the first with “no meaningful reduction” in pupil absence since the Covid pandemic, new suggests.

FFT Education Datalab’s research suggests that, while the June heatwave “won’t have helped” in reducing absence in England’s schools, there was also “little improvement” over the rest of the academic year.

After seeing absence rates fall in every year since Covid, ministers set a target of 94 per cent attendance by 2028‑29 - prompting some to call for more ambition and a return to pre‑pandemic levels regularly above 95 per cent.

In March, annual Department for Education showed that overall annual absence in schools had reduced in 2024-25 to 6.78 per cent, from 7.15 per cent. Despite severe absence reaching a record level that year, the DfE hailed the biggest improvement in attendance since 2013-14.

Lack of progress on pupil absence

However, in analysis of data from 10,000 schools, FFT says that 2025-26 could represent the first year with no year-on-year reduction in absence since the pandemic. It also questions the extent to which the June heatwave can be blamed.

FFT statistician Katie Beynon, in a , notes a “dramatic increase” in weekly absence during the heatwave, but also highlights that attendance did not meaningfully change at any point during 2025-26.

There were “familiar patterns” in absence, FFT finds, with higher absences as the year went on and in the run-up to holidays.

The overall proportion of sessions missed in secondary schools reduced from 9 per cent in 2024-25 to 8.8 per cent in 2025-26. Unauthorised absence is described as “stubbornly high” in secondaries.

In primary, the proportion of sessions missed due to absence remained unchanged at 5.5 per cent.

The overall percentage of pupils persistently absent - those who miss at least 10 per cent of sessions - was also unchanged, at 15 per cent in primaries and 25 per cent in secondary schools.

In 2018-19, before Covid, persistent absence at primary was around 8 per cent; at secondary, it was 14 per cent.

Little variation by region

Researchers also find little variation in persistent absence by region. Rates of persistent absence at primary only vary by around 2 percentage points by region, from 14 to 16 per cent. At secondary, the range is slightly bigger, at 4 percentage points - from 23 per cent in London to 27 per cent in the North East.

“It appears that absence overall has remained broadly the same as last year, perhaps ever so slightly lower at secondary,” Ms Beynon says.

“If this is borne out when official DfE statistics are released next spring, it will be the first post-pandemic year with no meaningful reduction in absence.”

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